Farr Proof of Fortune¶

Whose head does heaven crown?

Choosing farr_i_izadi in Age 1 is the most ambitious answer to the khuṭba question — neither regency for a Borjigin puppet nor caliphal investiture, but the bare claim that the dynasty itself bears farr-i īzadī, the divine glory that legitimates Iranian kingship in its own right. The doctrine is fully canonical by 1337 — Niẓām al-Mulk, Ṭūsī, Ghazālī, Davānī — but the claim is testable. The world demands proof.

The Farr Proof of Fortune disaster (farr_proof_of_fortune) is the world's audit of the boast. It is automatic, unavoidable, and the central content of the farr path.

The wager¶

The disaster fires within months of the reform's adoption. On start:

add_legitimacy = -50 — the moment the herald reads the edict of self-elevation, the world rules it invalid until earned. Your own edict of appointment, by the Ilkhānid chancery's logic, was the basis of your standing; you have just disowned the document.
stability_decay = +0.0025 — the realm settles uneasily.

The disaster then holds the realm in a heavy ambient pressure for as long as it runs:

Field	Value	Reading
`monthly_legitimacy`	−1.0	The hunger. The claim consumes the credibility it asserts.
`minting_income_factor`	−0.40	The mints will not stamp your name; coins still circulate in the Ilkhān's.
`amirs_estate_target_satisfaction`	−0.10	The umarāʾ watch a Tāzīk claim a Türk's privilege.
`clergy_estate_target_satisfaction`	−0.05	No khuṭba in your name yet.
`burghers_estate_target_satisfaction`	−0.05	The bazaar distrusts the un-named coin.
`court_spending_cost_modifier`	+0.05	The Nawrūz needs paying for in any case.
`diplomatic_reputation`	−1	Foreign chanceries omit the title.

Legitimacy is the ledger. There is no parallel Proof variable. The disaster simply lets the world score the claim by watching whether the dynasty can carry its own legitimacy.

How legitimacy is fed¶

Two streams replace what the disaster consumes. Both must come from outside — neither court ritual nor estate-petting reaches the size required.

War — the standing offset¶

A farr claimant who is at war with someone is being judged on a real battlefield. Several auto-modifiers (in 01_eranzamin_legitimacy_crisis.txt and 03_eranzamin_legitimacy_crisis.txt) read whether the realm is at war and inject monthly legitimacy on the strength of it. War alone does not pay for the disaster — the bleed is bigger than the at-war ambient — but it cuts the gap, and it is the only condition under which the next stream becomes available.

Conquest — the stacking pulse¶

The hook on_winning_war applies the farr_conquest_glory static modifier:

monthly_legitimacy = +0.4
monthly_prestige = +0.05
Duration: 12 months, mode add_and_extend.

Each new victory extends the duration to 12 months from that latest victory. Held in continuous conquest, this stream alone overshoots the −1.0 bleed by +0.4 net. A campaign-tempo dynasty pulls ahead. A dynasty at peace bleeds full speed.

Defeat and the lost capital¶

farr_defeat_shame (from on_losing_war): monthly_legitimacy = −1.0 and monthly_prestige = −0.10 for six months. Heaven visibly withdrew.
farr_capital_lost (from on_location_changed_owner when the capital changes hands): monthly_legitimacy = −2.0, monthly_prestige = −0.20, stability_decay = +0.10. Removed when the seat is recovered. The single fastest way to break the wager.

Apparatus claims (50 / 65 / 80 / 90)¶

Four buttons appear on the disaster panel as legitimacy thresholds are crossed. They are not automatic. Each is a deliberate act of consolidation that costs legitimacy up front and pays it back as a permanent refund plus an irreversible legacy modifier. The pattern is the spine of the disaster: bank credibility on the battlefield, spend it for the institutional fact, keep the institution forever.

`claim_sikka` — leg ≥ 50 (costs −10 leg)¶

Strikes coin in the dynasty's own name. Fires farr_proof.50.

Refund farr_sikka_refund: minting_income_factor = +0.40, burghers_estate_target_satisfaction = +0.05, monthly_legitimacy = +0.10. Exactly cancels the standing minting penalty.
Legacy farr_sikka_granted — permanent: tax_income_efficiency = +0.05, Dīwān satisfaction +0.05. The dār al-ḍarb infrastructure, the assayers, the fiscal spine. The Muẓaffarids kept their sikka long after their fortunes turned.
Diplomatic cost: every Erānzamīn member who took chinggisid_regency gets opinion_betrayed_genghis and a cb_eranzamin_succession casus belli on you.

`claim_khutba` — leg ≥ 65 (costs −15 leg)¶

Has the qāḍīs name you in the Friday sermon. Fires farr_proof.65.

Refund farr_khutba_refund: clergy satisfaction +0.05, monthly_legitimacy = +0.10. Cancels the clergy slice.
Legacy farr_khutba_in_your_name — permanent: clergy satisfaction +0.05, tolerance_own = +1. The ʿulamāʾ–state alignment imprinted.
Diplomatic cost: every Erānzamīn member who took ghazi_sultanate gets opinion_own_khutbah and the same casus belli — the ghāzī courts read your khuṭba as theft.

`proclaim_hunt_and_nawruz` — leg ≥ 80 (costs −20 leg)¶

The full Sasanian-steppe court ritual: the royal hunt, the Nawrūz audience, the bāzūband ceremony. Fires farr_proof.80.

Refund farr_hunt_and_nawruz_refund: Amirs satisfaction +0.10, monthly_legitimacy = +0.10. Cancels the amīr slice — the umarāʾ see kingship enacted in the form their fathers recognized.
Legacy farr_hunt_and_nawruz — permanent: Tribes +0.15, Amirs +0.05, monthly_amirs_estate_rebel_growth = −0.005, monthly_tribes_estate_rebel_growth = −0.005. The constituency widens past the Tāzīk core.

`assume_padishah` — leg ≥ 90 (costs −25 leg)¶

The consummation: the title Pādishāh-i Īrān placed into your protocol, your seal, your foreign correspondence. Fires farr_proof.90.

Refund farr_padishah_refund: monthly_legitimacy = +0.20. The largest slice — alone it cancels two-fifths of the bleed.
Legacy farr_padishah — permanent: antagonism_received_modifier = −0.15, diplomatic_reputation = +1, monthly_prestige = +0.05.

With all four refunds standing, the −1.0 bleed is fully cancelled (+0.10 + 0.10 + 0.10 + 0.20 = +0.50, plus what the legacies add on top). The disaster effectively pauses while you hunt the resolution.

Strategic note — buttons stay enabled forever once their threshold is met. There is no requirement to claim in order. Sitting on legitimacy 92 and waiting for the next decisive conquest before assuming pādishāh is a legitimate posture. Banked legitimacy that you never spend is wasted.

Erosion events (35 / 20 / 10)¶

Where apparatus claims are upward and player-driven, erosion events fire downward and automatically. They are the public signs of withheld favor — they happen to the dynasty, not by its choice — and they fire on threshold-touch from above.

35 — the formal cracks: chancery memos that omit royal protocol, court poets gone silent, foreign envoys arriving with shorter titles.
20 — the constituency falters: ʿulamāʾ refuse blessings, tribal noyans late to court, frontier garrisons drawing pay irregularly.
10 — the realm reads the dynasty as cursed: comets and omens publicly debated as such, the chronicles begin to use the past tense.

Each event costs further legitimacy and applies a flavor modifier. They are recoverable but each one written into the record.

Omen pulses¶

Random comet / earthquake / plague pulses fire monthly inside the disaster. Each presents a court-interpretation choice — read the sign as favorable, hostile, or refuse to read it. The plague branch is weight-multiplied for the 1346–1500 window (the Black Death and its aftershocks across the Persianate world) so a farr dynasty in this period will have to publicly stake the doctrine on what the plague means for them.

The four outcomes¶

The disaster polls monthly for resolution. Four endings, each with its own static modifier and follow-on.

Vindicated — `farr_proof_vindicated`¶

Gate: 60 cumulative months at legitimacy ≥ 75 (farr_high_months >= 60). Not necessarily consecutive — flash victories don't count, but five years of broken-up high credibility do.

The wager inverts. The farr_manifest modifier applies:

monthly_legitimacy = +0.10 — the stream is now positive and permanent.
Amirs satisfaction +0.10, Tribes +0.05, with monthly_amirs_estate_rebel_growth = −0.010 and monthly_tribes_estate_rebel_growth = −0.010.
antagonism_received_modifier = −0.20, diplomatic_reputation = +1, stability_decay = −0.003.

This is the wire into the Erānzamīn Matter: amīr houses that watched you win now formally swear, and the dynasty enters the Matter's recognized-contenders list. The reform's re_assert_farr_after_lapse block does not apply (you didn't lapse).

Endured — `farr_proof_endured`¶

Gate: 25 years (farr_disaster_months >= 300) elapsed, realm intact, no other resolution fired. The quieter vindication.

farr_endured modifier — permanent: monthly_legitimacy = +0.10, stability_decay = −0.03, antagonism_received_modifier = −0.10. Smaller bonuses than Vindicated, but the doctrine stands and the bleed is gone. The claim survived without becoming canonical.

Broken-formal — `farr_proof_broken_formal`¶

Gate: legitimacy reaches 0. The dynasty has been judged and found unfit.

Türk amīr usurpation. The reform is stripped. The ruler is replaced by a Türk military leader. The government tilts toward chinggisid_regency — the realm's politics admits it could not carry the farr and reverts to the safer fiction. No farr_manifest, no legacies (the doctrine is gone with the dynasty).

Broken-lapse — `farr_proof_broken_lapse`¶

Gate: 60 cumulative months at legitimacy ≤ 25 (farr_low_months >= 60), without the usurpation having fired.

The doctrine quietly lapses. No coup, no usurper — the realm simply stops pretending. The bleed ends. The attempted_farr_and_failed permanent scar applies: monthly_prestige = −0.10, diplomatic_reputation = −1, antagonism_received_modifier = +0.10. The cousins remember, the chronicles record. Re-declaration is locked by the reform's potential check — this dynasty has had its chance.

How to manage the disaster¶

The standing posture that survives the Farr Proof is continuous, legible war against legible targets. The arithmetic doesn't leave room for peace: a single peaceful year at the −1.0 bleed eats 12 legitimacy. The dynasty that pays it off is the one that stays in the field, takes ground, and uses each pulse of victory's +0.4 to buy the next apparatus claim.

Practical sequencing:

First year: take the initial −50 hit. Do not attempt to claim sikka immediately even if you have the floor — wait until you are at war and your conquest pulse is feeding +0.4/mo.
Through 50: war and conquest. Claim sikka the first time you can do it without falling back below 35.
Through 65: do not break peace just to recover. The clergy slice is small; the sikka refund alone covers a lot.
Through 80: this is the hardest stretch. Hunt-and-Nawrūz needs 80 leg net of the −20 cost — i.e. claim it from a position of comfortable 95+. The amīr satisfaction it brings is large; do not claim it during a major war if you can avoid the amīr unrest the disaster's standing modifier is already imposing.
Through 90: same again. Take pādishāh from 110+ legitimacy whenever it's available — by this stage the legacies are doing most of the work, and the 25-leg cost is recoverable in a single tier-3 win.
Hold the floor at 75 for 60 months for Vindicated. With four apparatus claimed, you are net positive: this is the easy lap.

Failure modes:

Capital loss is the single worst event. The farr_capital_lost modifier is monthly_legitimacy = −2.0, on top of the −1.0 standing bleed. Three months at −3.0 can drop you fifty points. Defending Tabrīz / Iṣfahān / Shīrāz is the first strategic priority.
Stalemated peace at low legitimacy is the textbook way to fall into Broken-lapse. The doctrine punishes inactivity twice: directly, through the bleed, and indirectly, by denying you the conquest pulse.
Aggressive over-claiming: claiming all four apparatus the moment each threshold is reached burns 70 legitimacy in costs. If those claims fall during a defeat, the dynasty can crash through 35, 20, 10 in succession.

Payoffs in plain numbers¶

A Vindicated dynasty that has claimed all four apparatus stands at:

monthly_legitimacy = +0.10 (Vindicated) + the four legacy traces' implicit prestige and satisfaction effects.
Permanent tax_income_efficiency = +0.05, tolerance_own = +1, Tribes +0.15, Amirs +0.05 and reduced amīr/tribal rebel growth, antagonism_received_modifier = −0.35 total (−0.20 from Vindicated, −0.15 from pādishāh legacy), diplomatic_reputation = +2.
Eligibility for iranian_kingship in Age 2 (the only Age 2 reform that requires farr_i_izadi).
Standing as a recognized Erānzamīn contender.

A Broken dynasty stands at: bleed ended, doctrine gone, scar permanent, no re-attempt.

See also: Government reforms, Erānzamīn situation, Türk vs Tāzīk, the Ghāzī Burden of the Sword (the parallel disaster for the ghāzī path).